By Mandere Onyinkwa
The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience below-normal rainfall and warmer-than-usual temperatures during the October to December 2025 season.
This is according to a new forecast released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
The seasonal outlook, issued from Nairobi, warns of significant climate anomalies that could impact agriculture, water availability, and public health across multiple countries in the region.
Southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern and coastal Kenya, and central and southern Tanzania are among the areas likely to receive less rainfall than usual.
In contrast, western parts of the region including western Ethiopia, north-western Kenya, north-western and western Uganda, northern Uganda, and parts of Burundi and Rwanda are expected to receive above-normal rainfall.
However, ICPAC cautions that even in these areas, the rainfall may be unevenly distributed and accompanied by higher temperatures.
“There is a greater than 70% likelihood of below-normal rainfall in parts of southern Kenya, southern Somalia, much of Rwanda, and northern Tanzania,” the statement reads.
The forecast also highlights elevated temperatures in north-western Kenya, central and southern Somalia, most of Rwanda, and western Burundi, which could influence rainfall patterns and exacerbate heat-related risks.
The October–December season is critical for food production and water recharge in many parts of the Horn of Africa.
With the region still recovering from previous drought cycles and erratic rainfall, the forecast raises concerns about food security, livestock health, and disease outbreaks.
ICPAC urged governments, humanitarian agencies, and local communities to prepare for potential impacts by strengthening early warning systems, scaling up water conservation efforts, and supporting climate-resilient farming practices.