By Robert Nyasato
The exit of Raila Odinga has ushered in a new political dispensation in Kenya.
In the last General Election, President William Ruto single-handedly silenced a team assembled by his then boss, Uhuru Kenyatta.
It was a rare win by a man running for the highest office on the land for the first time, although he had served as deputy president for ten years.
Running on a “bottom-up economic transformation” platform, Ruto rallied Kenyans against the so-called political dynasties and edged out his opponent by just over 200,000 votes.
In the 2027 presidential race, Ruto is expected to face the same alliance he defeated in 2022—minus Raila, whom he had co-opted into government before his demise.
He has also drawn former KANU leader Gideon Moi into the Kenya Kwanza fold and hinted at talks with Uhuru Kenyatta on forming the next government.
Ironically, Ruto now appears to be regrouping the very dynasties he once vowed to destroy.
The question is: what card will the united opposition play to wrest power from him in 2027?
Ruto previously defeated a formidable team comprising Raila, Uhuru, Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa, Gideon Moi, Fred Matiang’i and the so-called “Deep State.”
Despite enjoying the full trappings of incumbency, Uhuru failed to deliver the Mount Kenya vote—a task that then-Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua successfully achieved for Ruto.
Now, with Raila and Moi out of the picture, the opposition remains largely intact, bolstered by Gachagua, who was impeached as Deputy President.
However, he cannot run again until 2032.
Meanwhile, Moses Wetang’ula and Musalia Mudavadi have joined the government as National Assembly Speaker and Prime Cabinet Secretary respectively.
This leaves only one credible pairing to challenge Ruto: Fred Matiang’i of Jubilee and Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper.
Matiang’i enjoys a reputation for effective service delivery from his decade-long tenure as a Cabinet Secretary under Uhuru’s regime, having been mentored by Simeon Nyachae.
His main weakness is his lack of experience in elective politics, and his choice of Jubilee as a political vehicle remains uncertain.
While Jubilee’s ten-year rule limits its ability to offer new promises, Matiang’i’s nationwide appeal and record of efficiency could still give him a viable platform.
Kalonzo, on the other hand, brings unmatched political experience and endurance, though his record has been mixed.
The duo could exploit growing public discontent over Ruto’s failure to deliver on pre-election pledges.
Many Kenyans feel the Kenya Kwanza administration has failed to turn around the economy and continues to govern on promises rather than results.
With Raila’s passing, Ruto’s government has lost part of its political cover.
Yet both UDA and Jubilee now share a similar challenge: convincing Kenyans based on performance, not pledges—particularly in critical sectors such as health and education.
Meanwhile, Gachagua remains a wild card.
Cast aside from government, he now appears driven by vengeance, as shown in his “one-term” battle cry and his success in drawing Mount Kenya’s support away from Ruto.
Whether Ruto can once again play the dynasty card to preserve his rule—or the opposition can rally voters around service delivery—will define the 2027 contest.
-Mr. Nyasato is a member of the Kisii Press Club