By Kurian Musa
“Jogoo wa mashambani hawiki mjini,” Raila Odinga often remarked during his political life, underscoring his belief that Nairobi must first be conquered before national political power can be contemplated.
Winnie Odinga’s entry onto the stage, accompanied by a song from late Nairobi pop artist titled Hamunitishi—“Vitisho vya peni mbili havinitishi mimi”—captured this symbolism.
She referenced the song recently during her first rally in Kibra, Nairobi.
Throughout his career, Raila dominated the capital’s politics before radiating influence outward across the country.
In the evolving ODM succession environment, Winnie Odinga has carved out space as the urban “cockerel”—a term used loosely to depict her as a cosmopolitan heiress from the lakeside who appears poised to contest control of the city’s political direction in much the same way her late father once did.
Key Nairobi allies of Raila Odinga have remained tight-lipped even as two factions quietly take shape within the Orange Democratic Movement.
Figures such as TJ Kajwang’ (Ruaraka), Felix Odiwuor “Jalang’o” (Lang’ata), and Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands) have adopted a neutral posture, signaling a wait-and-see approach.
By contrast, Nairobi leaders who have spoken publicly—most notably Babu Owino (Embakasi East) and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna—appear to be gravitating toward Winnie Odinga’s faction, hinting that the capital’s youthful urban wing may be consolidating around her.
Governor Johnson Sakaja, previously seen as politically close to Raila, has steered clear of ODM’s internal contestation following Raila’s death.
However, ODM-leaning County Assembly members associated with Winnie’s camp have demonstrated cooperative alignment with Sakaja’s county government, suggesting a tactical convergence in Nairobi’s local power arena.
In the city context—where Raila long held hegemonic advantage—this alignment could prove decisive in structuring ODM’s future electoral relevance.
The party’s senior luminaries who joined the national Cabinet have adopted a cautious, and at times indifferent, posture toward ODM’s ideological coherence and strategic future.
Former Kakamega Governor and now Cabinet Secretary for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises and Co-operatives Wycliffe Oparanya, alongside Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, has observed the unfolding succession somewhat pensively, occasionally defending party positions in a manner that leaves Dr. Oburu Odinga—the new party leader—appearing less than fully in control of the party’s power centres.
Legacy ODM leaders such as Siaya Governor and Senior Counsel James Orengo and Kisumu Governor Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o have exhibited leanings toward Winnie Odinga’s side of the factional divide.
Their inclination reflects a shift in influence: unlike in prior years, they no longer occupy the front row in negotiations with the ruling UDA Party.
Nyong’o has long been Raila’s intellectual confidant, while Orengo has operated as a brother-like figure within the Jaramogi Odinga school of politics.
With Dr. Oburu Odinga inheriting ODM leadership from his late brother, a symbolic and generational split becomes evident.
Raila once defied his father to craft his own political identity, yet kept his father’s political family intact.
That inheritance now appears divided between institutional leadership under Oburu and metropolitan legitimacy under Winnie.
ODM’s transitions have also spilled beyond Luo constituencies.
In Kisii County, Governor Simba Arati finds himself in a difficult and politically hazardous position as he navigates the influence of former Interior Cabinet Secretary and presidential hopeful Dr. Fred Matiang’i.
The coexistence of Matiang’i’s national stature and Arati’s regional ambitions introduces intra-regional contestation that mirrors the broader ODM reconfiguration.
Meanwhile, in Homa Bay, Governor Gladys Wanga has emerged as a strong chair anchoring Dr. Oburu’s faction.
The Treasury Cabinet Secretary has argued that the broad-based government model is the most transformative governance arrangement since the Kibaki–Raila grand coalition that delivered the Thika Superhighway.
Winnie Odinga, however, has countered that Raila did not leave ODM for a UDA-led government, but rather intervened to stabilise the state after the Gen Z protests threatened national order.
These dynamics set the stage for complex electoral calculations.
Governor Wanga, CPA John Mbadi, and Opondo Kaluma may find themselves in politically awkward positions ahead of next year’s polls if Winnie chooses to back Homa Bay Senator Moses Kajwang’ for governor and endorses fresh aspirants to entrench her influence within the Luo nation.
The decisive question is whether Dr. Oburu Odinga can translate formal party leadership into real control, or whether Nairobi—and by extension ODM—will be redefined through Winnie Odinga’s generational and metropolitan lens.
-The author is a member of the Kisii Press Club