By Nyang’au Araka
The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a heavy rainfall advisory warning of intensified downpours across several parts of the country.
The rains will be experienced between Saturday afternoon and Tuesday evening, raising the risk of flooding in both urban and rural areas.
In the advisory, the department said rainfall currently being experienced in western and central parts of the country is expected to strengthen significantly from February 21.
“The rainfall being experienced over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and Highlands west and east of the Rift Valley including Nairobi is expected to intensify to more than 20mm in 24 hours on 21st February 2026,” the advisory states.
According to the forecast, the rains will peak between February 22 and 24, with heavier downpours anticipated in a wider area of the country.
“The heavy rainfall is likely to intensify to more than 30mm in 24 hours on 22nd, 23rd and 24th February 2026 and spread to the Southeastern lowlands and the Coastal region, especially the South Coast,” the department said.
The rains are, however, expected to ease toward the middle of next week. “It is projected to reduce in intensity on 25th February 2026,” the advisory added.
Counties listed as areas of concern include Migori, Nyamira, Bungoma, Kakamega, Embu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi, Kisii, Narok, Kajiado, Makueni, Machakos, Nairobi, Kericho, Bomet, Taita-Taveta, Kitui, Kwale, Mombasa, southern parts of Tana River and sections of Kilifi.
Residents in these regions have been urged to remain alert, particularly those living in flood-prone areas and along river basins.
“Residents in all the mentioned areas are advised to be on the lookout for potential floods,” the department warned.
The advisory cautioned that flooding may occur even in locations where rainfall appears minimal.
“Flood waters may appear in places where it has not rained heavily, especially downstream,” it said, noting the risk posed by runoff from upstream areas.
Members of the public were also advised to take precautionary measures to avoid loss of life and property.
“People are advised to avoid driving through or walking in moving water or open fields,” the statement said.
The warning comes amid ongoing seasonal rains that have already caused localized flooding and disruption in parts of western Kenya and Nairobi, where poor drainage and rising river levels have previously led to damaged roads and displacement of residents during similar weather patterns.
The advisory has been circulated to key national and county authorities, including the Presidency, the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, the National Disaster Operations Centre, the National Disaster Management Unit, security agencies, humanitarian organizations and the media to support preparedness and coordinated response.
“Updates will be provided promptly if there are any changes,” the advisory stated.
The department classified the warning as “expected” with “moderate to heavy” severity and a “moderate probability of occurrence,” indicating a 33 to 66 per cent chance that the projected rainfall will materialize within the forecast period.